Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

PROFIT GROWTH KEY FOR 2020 STOCKS
Clarity from the phase-one trade deal with China and United Kingdom election results could help shift stock market performance drivers more toward investing fundamentals in 2020. We expect stocks to appreciate in line with earnings growth next year,...
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BETTER DAYS AHEAD FOR BONDS
2019 was a baffling year for bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a three-year low, and the yield curve flashed ominous signals about the economic outlook. We’ve seen some improvement in long-term yields since the September low, but we...
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AMBLING ALONG IN 2020
U.S. economic growth has slowed in 2019. However, the economy is still growing, and we believe it will continue growing through 2020. As we highlighted in our Outlook 2020: Bringing Markets Into Focus, we’re projecting real GDP growth of 1.75% in...
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TECHNICALS CHECK-IN
Market momentum, global participation, and technical support all provide reasons to think gains may not be over for 2019. While volatility is always possible, record highs need not be feared, and seasonal tendencies may remain a tailwind. To continue...
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HAVE WE HIT THE EARNINGS BOTTOM?
While earnings declined year over year in the third quarter, results still exceeded expectations. Tariffs, ongoing policy uncertainty, and slower global growth have led to this earnings lull, but we remain optimistic that earnings growth bottomed...
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RECESSION WATCH
Why would we write a report about recession with the S&P 500 at record highs? Consider it a check-up. Just because you feel good doesn’t mean you skip your annual physical at the doctor. We check in on some of our favorite leading indicators to...
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