Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

The Bull Turns 10
The bull market will celebrate its tenth birthday on March 9, 2019. During that period, the S&P 500 Index has increased more than fourfold in value, producing a total return of 410% (17.7% annualized) while rising 314% in price. Concerns over the...
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Economic Data FAQs
Investors are sifting through a deluge of backlogged data after a historic U.S. government shutdown. As data have caught up, many reports have missed consensus estimates, stoking fears that Wall Street may be overlooking a slowdown in the U.S....
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Five Key Questions
This week we reassess the stock market landscape following the latest rally. Specifically, we answer five of the most common questions we’ve received recently. We use multiple lenses to assess the stock market, including fundamentals, valuations,...
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Updates to Our Economic Forecasts
2019 has been a busy year so far. The United States has weathered a 35-day government shutdown, global data have deteriorated further, trade headlines continue to dominate the news, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has made a significant U-turn in...
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The Rally Continues
The rally continues, as the S&P 500 Index gained for the seventh week out of the past eight, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 Index, and Nasdaq all closed higher for the eighth consecutive week. Sparking the rally this week...
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Feeling Confident?
Deteriorating confidence over the last several months has soured the economic landscape. About four months ago, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reached an 18-year high. Since then, the gauge has dropped about 18 points, its biggest...
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