Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

Perspective on Market Volatility
After several months of historic calm, stocks sold off sharply last week. Rising interest rates and trade war fears were cited as the primary causes of the sell-off that caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 1300 points on...
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Global Economic Outlook
Investors have been digesting a number of important global developments this year: fiscal stimulus, trade tensions, divergence in global policy and currencies, and political developments. As 2018 heads into the fourth quarter, we’ve put together...
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Global Equity Market Outlook
We continue to favor the United States and emerging markets (EM) over developed foreign markets for global equity allocations. We see the U.S. economy as the primary driver of our forecast for 3.8% global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2018,...
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The Dot Disconnect
The Federal Reserve (Fed) wrapped up its most recent monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, September 26. While the Fed raised its policy rate, as expected, the more important outcome was the Fed’s guidance on future policy through its statement, a...
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Best Quarter for Stocks Since Q4 2013
Investors endured a flurry of trade headlines and emerging market turmoil in the third quarter, but that didn’t slow down U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index rose 7.2% during what has historically been the most volatile quarter of the year (7.7%...
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Fed Meeting Preview
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting will be a focal point for markets this week. The two-day meeting will culminate in a policy decision, new economic projections, and a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. An...
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