Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

The Dow Joins the Party
The Dow joined the S&P 500 in reaching fresh new highs last week. The record came after a drought lasting nearly eight months. The blue chip index has lagged the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite this year amid escalating trade tensions,...
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Beige Book: Window on Main Street
BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH The latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book, released last week, suggested continued steady economic growth. While signs of a tightening labor market and concerns about tariffs...
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Midterm Mayhem?
Will midterm elections drive mayhem in the markets? The upcoming midterm elections promise to be among the more interesting in recent decades. The Republicans can take comfort in elections generally being about “…the economy, stupid!”...
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Manufacturing Health at 14-Year High
Strong manufacturing growth is a bellwether for overall economic health. Even though manufacturing is a dwindling part of domestic output, accounting for about 12% of gross domestic product (GDP), strong manufacturing growth has consistently preceded...
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Is EM Washed Out?
Are emerging markets (EM) washed out? Last week the MSCI Emerging Markets Index officially sank 20% from its peak in late January. This prompted many bearish headlines, such as “Emerging Markets Slide into Bear Market amid Contagion Concern,” and...
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Productivity on the Rise
Productivity gains play an important role in economic output, and recent gains support an encouraging picture of the U.S. economy. Productivity, first and foremost, is a primary driver of gross domestic product (GDP) growth [Figure 1]. In the second...
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