Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

Global Economic Outlook Remains Strong on U.S. Growth Prospects
We believe that the global growth story will continue in 2018, with an expectation of 3.8% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the world economy, thanks to new fiscal policies and improved business vitality. We continue to expect the U.S. economy...
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2018 Midyear Stock Market Outlook: Second Half Rally?
The current environment looks favorable for strong earnings and stock gains. We do expect volatility, but steady economic growth provides a strong backdrop and the potential for opportunity. The first half of 2018 saw the return of equity volatility...
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U.S.-China Trade Update
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have been building over the course of 2018. These tensions have escalated over the last month, but while risks are rising, economic disruptions have remained minimal. We continue to believe the final economic...
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Trade Tensions Playbook
Escalating trade tensions have made for a difficult investing environment. This is not news to anyone at this point. But investors’ angst was ratcheted higher last week after the Trump administration played its next card—announcing tariffs on an...
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Capex Rising: Means, Motive, and Opportunity
Increased business capital expenditures, or “capex,” remain one of the most important pieces for improving the long-term growth trajectory of the U.S. economy. Capital expenditures help increase productivity, and improved productivity is the...
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Playing The CAPEX Theme
Capital investment is accelerating, a trend we believe should continue. One of the most encouraging aspects of the U.S. economy currently is that capital spending is accelerating just as some tailwinds are starting to kick in. As we discuss in this...
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