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Journals

Featured Journal Entry

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by…

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Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs

The Five Forecasters favor the continuation of the current economic expansion and bull market. The Five Forecasters a…
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EM Earnings: Beginning to Emerge

By nature, emerging markets (EM) have greater risks, but they also have attractive attributes relative to developed f…
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Corporate Beige Book: Q2 Offers Few Signs of Improvement

Corporate sentiment improved little based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for second quarter …
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Deficit? What Deficit?

The U.S. presidential election is only ten weeks away, and one key topic has been largely absent on the campaign trai…
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Earnings Update: We Were Hoping for More

Second quarter earnings season has been okay, but we were hoping for more. S&P 500 earnings are tracking to a 2.6…
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Overcoming a Wall of Worries

With weaker than expected jobs growth in May, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent disappointing economic forecast, neg…

All About the Dot Plots

As the fourth of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market a…

Beige Book: Window on Main Street

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing near its long-term trend, and that the drag fro…